In May, Bitcoin (BTC) completed its second-worst monthly close in history.
It’s currently trading inside a neutral short-term pattern and has reached a confluence of resistance levels.
Bitcoin monthly close
The month of May was bearish for BTC, recording a loss of 35.59%. This was the second-highest monthly decrease ever recorded, only trailing that of November 2018, when the price decreased by 37%.
Technical indicators provide mixed readings.
In the two previous bull cycles, the RSI made two tops in the overbought territory prior to the end of the bull run. In the current phase, it has only made one top.
However, an RSI cross below 70 marked an end to the bull cycle in both 2013 and 2017 (red icons). Currently, the monthly RSI has just crossed below 70.
Therefore, a look at lower time-frames is required in order to examine the direction of the future trend.
BTC continues ascent
The daily time frame provides a bullish outlook.
The RSI has completed a failure swing bottom. Furthermore, it has generated a triple bullish divergence. The divergence trendline is still intact (blue line). Moreover, the MACD is increasing after giving a bullish reversal signal. Finally, the Stochastic oscillator is very close to making a bullish cross.
Therefore, readings in the daily time-frame are bullish.
The two-hour chart shows that BTC is trading inside a symmetrical triangle. This is normally considered a neutral pattern.
If the movement is part of wave four, then it’s likely that the price has reached a top near $38,000. This is the 0.618 Fib retracement resistance level, an expected level for wave E (black) to come to an end.
Instead, a breakout from the triangle would go a long way in suggesting that BTC has completed its correction instead of the movement being part of wave four.
For a more detailed look at wave counts, click here.